About Dan Davies
This is a new mailing list. It’s in some ways a successor to “PREDICTO”, a small-circulation newsletter which I used to send out a while ago, in which I used to make predictions about world events, based on decision principles that I’d picked up in my day job as a stock analyst.
The valuable thing about that newsletter was never really the predictions per se (although I feel like my track record wasn’t too bad) – it was the ex post lessons-learned exercises that we used to do, seeing what had gone right or wrong and updating the decision principles accordingly. My unofficial motto at the time was that “if you don’t make predictions, you won’t know what to be surprised by”. (These days I might add “if you don’t make recommendations, you will never know what to be disappointed by”).
It seems to me that quite a lot of people are doing that sort of thing these days, though, so I felt like trying something a bit more experimental.